3 oil and gas companies






.

 

conocophillips energy poll (interesting)

http://www.conocophillipsenergy.com/

 

IMHO there is still money to be made on oil company stock............................I like all of there.....here is there gains so far this year

Hess 38%
Marathon 28%
Murphy 54%
Occidental 41%
Apache 44 %
Anadarko 32%
Frontier 56%
Sunoco 25%
Tesoro 67%
Encana 41%


I believe eventually all of these smaller companys will end up being owned by the bigger ones....................if ya owned stock during a purchase it would make ya rich

 

light sweet crude hit a high today of $92.20,
before falling back to about 91.00

 

man there is some geniouses out there............I been sayin this forever

The new math of oil

High energy prices are always bad, right? Not necessarily, says Fortune's Geoff Colvin.
By Geoff Colvin, Fortune senior editor-at-large
October 31 2007: 7:20 AM EDT


(Fortune Magazine) -- We're hard-wired to tremble when oil prices rocket, and the past few weeks have looked like another example of why. Whenever stocks fell sharply, as they did several times, traders blamed the fast-rising price of oil.

But that chain of logic is misleading. The bigger picture shows that the relation between oil and the economy is changing, and we'll have to rewire our brains to understand what's happening. Watching oil prices rise and fall is no longer enough; the key now is understanding why they're moving.


We're experiencing a demand shock, not a supply shock .

You know something strange is going on when you step back and examine the stock market's performance not of the past three weeks but of the past five years. As oil prices have surged, they haven't knocked down stocks or hobbled the economy. Instead just the opposite has happened: Oil has tripled, yet stocks have roared ahead to new records, and the U.S. economy has grown smartly over the whole period. That is not how things work, or so we learned after oil spikes triggered recessions in 1973, 1980, 1981, and 1990.

The critical insight into what's happening comes from Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and a longtime authority on world energy. "This is a demand shock, not a supply shock," he says. "What's causing it is the extraordinary economic growth of the past few years."

Previous oil spikes happened when OPEC closed the spigots; the resulting high prices were a tax on the world economy and slowed everything down. But today's situation is the opposite: Strong global economic growth is pushing oil prices up. As Yergin puts it, "The economy is having a greater impact on oil prices than oil prices are having on the economy."

 

Fossil fuel energy costs are rising largely due to the aggressive activities of oil futures commodity traders - guys and groups whose ONLY interest in oil is making huge profit without EVER touching the oil itself in terms of pumping, transporting or refining - they are an added layer of profit-takers, ONLY in it for the money, regardless of the damage their profit taking creates for the private citizen.

They contribute absolutely NOTHING to the fuel industry - and are only financial leeches lodged in between the actual oil processors, refiners and distributors, artificially creating roller-coaster upward price spirals that hurt the rest of our society - perhaps terminally!

Here's a pretty accurate summary from today's paper:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/30/business/oil.php

Here's a key paragraph:



Things are gonna get LOTS worse, COUNT ON IT!

 

Light Crude (NYM)
December 07 ($US per bbl.) 94.53 +4.15


holy crap........100??????

 

As Oil Nears $100, Look Out Below

Analysts say that if speculators flee the market en masse, prices could drop even more quickly than they've risen
by Moira Herbst



Oil prices are soaring. Having jumped 40% since August, crude prices hit another historic high on Nov. 6, rising to $96.70 a barrel. The factors sparking the $2.72 rally this time: bad weather in the North Sea that could force production cuts, the dollar's continued fall, more violence in the Middle East, and fears that U.S. crude supplies are low. The Energy Dept.'s Energy Information Administration will provide its weekly inventory report on Nov. 7.

But is there a sharp fall just ahead? Analysts say that the oil market looks overheated, and a number of factors could puncture the price bubble. Most important, speculators have played a key role in driving up crude prices this year, and if the trend reverses they'll get out fast. Certainly, global demand remains strong for now. But a number of factors—technical indicators, an economic slowdown, lower demand—could prompt investors to exit en masse.

"Oil prices are in uncharted territory," says Peter Fusaro, co-founder of the Energy Hedge Fund Center, which tracks commodities hedge funds. "My worry is that if the market tanks, everyone will want out at the same time. The market would collapse, and who knows what the bottom is."

Much Trading Remains Opaque
Speculators have played a growing role in the oil market in recent years (BusinessWeek.com,1/17/07). There are 595 hedge funds that engage in at least some energy trading now, more than triple the 180 funds involved just three years ago. Fusaro estimates the assets involved in such trading total more than $200 billion, up more than 60% from the beginning of the year.

It's tough to get a firm handle on the speculation. A large portion of trading takes place in the unregulated, over-the-counter market. Still, some of the trading in crude oil takes place on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and there the market is approaching a record in terms of the number of crude oil contracts that predict a price rise. Traders have committed to 135,000 contracts—each representing 1,000 barrels of crude—betting that prices will continue to rise. That's just shy of the record 155,000 contracts reached this summer.

Some analysts say that if the number of contracts rises sharply, oil prices could fall. "The exit signal for investors could be breaking through the 150,000 or 160,000 contract barrier," says Joel Fingerman, president of OilAnalytics.net, an energy consulting firm. "At that point investors could feel they're using all their bullets."

For Now, It's Full Steam Ahead
In the meantime however, investment continues to flood the crude oil market, as well as commodities in general. "The mentality now is very bullish," says Fingerman. "As long as money keeps flowing in, people will keep buying [oil] as though it's going to go to the moon."

The optimism has helped the stocks of the oil majors. ConocoPhillips (COP) is up nearly 40% (BusinessWeek.com, 10/26/07) over the past year. ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), British Petroleum (BP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) have posted similar if somewhat smaller gains.

Still, some analysts say the psychological impact of $100 oil could mark the beginning of a slip in prices. "The professionals will get out of the market at $98.50 or $98.99," says Peter Beutel, president of the energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. "They're not going to wait for $100 to materialize."

But is there anything special about the $100 mark? Some experts think not. "The barrier was supposedly $70, $80, then $90, and we're past that. Why would $100 suddenly cause a reversal?" says Stephen Schork, an energy consultant in Villanova, Pa., and editor of the Schork Report, a daily energy newsletter. "$100 is not the death knell to the bull market."

A Correction Is Inevitable
Beutel says that regardless of the exit signal for investors, the oil market is due for a correction. "Historically speaking we see that every time there is a sustained vertical [price] rise, we see a 20% correction," says Beutel, adding that the serious threat of a recession could take 40% off oil prices. "It's a beautiful thing that people forget: The market moves more quickly on the downside than it does on the upside."

It's also possible that ballooning oil prices will begin to fall when demand responds to price signals, as happened in the 1980s. "The uptick in crude hasn't caused the same drag on the economy as it did 28 years ago," says Ray Carbone, owner of the trading firm Paramount Options. "But once we're past all-time highs in oil prices, things could change."

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures touched a new intraday record high in electronic trading but ended down Wednesday from the previous day's record close, after the Energy Department reported better-than-expected U.S. crude-oil inventories in the latest week.

U.S. crude inventories for the week ended Nov. 2 fell to 311.9 million barrels, down by 800,000 barrels, compared with the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for inventories to fall by 1.6 million barrels.

In the previous week's report, the Energy Department said inventories fell to their lowest level in more than two years during the week ended Oct. 26.

The latest inventory data report "wasn't bad enough," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an energy research firm. "The market is expecting a much greater decline in crude oil stocks, which drove prices up yesterday. When it didn't get that, the market was declining."

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for December delivery closed down 33 cents, or 0.3%, at $96.37 a barrel. The contract closed at a record high of $96.70 Tuesday. Earlier Wednesday, it hit an intraday record of $98.62 a barrel in electronic trading.

"Had stocks shown a 3 million-to-5-million-barrel decline, market sentiment could have put prices past the $100 mark," Williams said.

"The decline in crude inventories was in line with expectations and thus should not be a major surprise to the energy market," said Chris Lafakis, an analyst at Moody's Economy.com.

Analysts at Commerzbank still expect oil to touch $100 a barrel soon. "We see no fundamental justification at present for such high prices, but the market is ignoring this aspect in its unbridled enthusiasm," they said.

In its weekly inventories update, the Energy Department also said the nation's gasoline stockpiles fell by 800,000 barrels last week, at the lower end of the average range for this time of year. Distillate stocks increased by 100,000 barrels, at the upper limit of the average range.

On Nymex, December reformulated gasoline gained ground to $2.4425 a gallon, up 0.3%, and December heating oil advanced to $2.6148 a gallon, up 0.3%.

"There are several factors that seem to be whipping up bullish sentiment and inspiring fresh speculative buying," said Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at MF Global.

He cited expectations for another drop in crude-oil stocks, bullish projections regarding oil supply and demand from both the Energy Department and the International Energy Agency as well as pressure on the U.S. dollar in foreign-exchange trading.

Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips said it's evacuating around 500 staff from North Sea Ekofisk oil platforms ahead of forecasts for severe weather in the region, according to a company spokesman.

Dollar stumbles

The dollar tumbled to new lows on Wednesday, retreating after a Chinese official called for the country to shift more of its foreign-exchange stockpiles out of the beleaguered greenback.

Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People's Congress, was quoted by wire services as saying China should place more of its $1.43 trillion of currency reserves in "stronger currencies," such as the euro, to offset "weak" currencies like the dollar.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down about 0.6% at 75.575. See Currencies.

A decline in the dollar makes oil a more attractive investment for holders of other currencies.

Also on Nymex, December natural gas fell 23.5 cents at $7.681 per million British thermal units.

And in the metals pits, gold futures gained 1.2% to their highest level since 1980, as the selling in the dollar boosted the precious metal's appeal as an inflation hedge and a safe haven. See Metals Stocks.

API report

Crude supplies rose by 2.3 million barrels to 313.3 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 2, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday. Distillate stocks rose by 0.5 million barrels to 136.7 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels to 193.6 million barrels, API said.

 

I think oil has sent everyone into shock