Price Of Oil Skyrocketing Again
Duramax Virgin
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,221
Likes: 99
From: Ponca City, OK
right now its just say what you want the price to be (by "predicting" it to go to a certain amount - like the $150 prediction yesterday before the nearly $11 jump) and it will be... its sickening
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From: Why-homing
I agree..................amazing what talk will do
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IN 2004, ARJUN N. MURTI, A TOP ENERGY ANALYST AT GOLDMAN SACHS, published a report predicting "a potentially large upward spike in crude oil, natural gas and refining margins at some point this decade." It was a controversial call, with crude around $40 a barrel at the time. But it was right on the money.
Four years later, crude is trading around 139.
Murti sees energy in the later stages of a "super spike," in which prices rise to a point where demand drops off. In a note last month, he wrote that "the possibility of $150-to-$200-per-barrel oil seems increasingly ...
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From: Why-homing
Federal task force to study commodity markets
Tuesday June 10, 1:06 pm ET
Government sets up interagency task force to examine oil, other commodity market developments
WASHINGTON (AP) -- As spiking fuel and food prices rattle markets and consumers worldwide, the U.S. government on Tuesday formed an interagency task force to assess developments in oil and other commodity markets.
The task force is comprised of staff from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the departments of Treasury, Energy and Agriculture. It will examine oil supply and demand factors, investor practices and the role of new players in the markets, such as speculators and index traders, according to a CFTC release.
With gasoline prices exceeding $4 a gallon, government policymakers and members of Congress are straining to find solutions.
"High commodity prices are posing a significant strain on U.S. households, and the (new) interagency task force will aid public and regulatory understanding of the forces that are affecting the functioning of these markets," the CFTC said in the release.
On Capitol Hill Tuesday, Senate Democrats pushed for the government to take some of the billions of dollars in profits being captured by the five biggest U.S. oil companies. But the move was blocked by Republicans, who also thwarted a Democratic proposal to give the government greater power to address oil market speculation that some argue has amplified the surge in crude prices.
The CFTC, which regulates U.S. futures markets, began a wide-ranging investigation in December of U.S. oil markets, with a focus on possible price manipulation. The agency is investigating potential abuses in the way crude-oil is purchased, shipped, stored and traded nationwide. It also recently announced several other initiatives designed to enhance the transparency of U.S. and international energy futures markets.
Tuesday June 10, 1:06 pm ET
Government sets up interagency task force to examine oil, other commodity market developments
WASHINGTON (AP) -- As spiking fuel and food prices rattle markets and consumers worldwide, the U.S. government on Tuesday formed an interagency task force to assess developments in oil and other commodity markets.
The task force is comprised of staff from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the departments of Treasury, Energy and Agriculture. It will examine oil supply and demand factors, investor practices and the role of new players in the markets, such as speculators and index traders, according to a CFTC release.
With gasoline prices exceeding $4 a gallon, government policymakers and members of Congress are straining to find solutions.
"High commodity prices are posing a significant strain on U.S. households, and the (new) interagency task force will aid public and regulatory understanding of the forces that are affecting the functioning of these markets," the CFTC said in the release.
On Capitol Hill Tuesday, Senate Democrats pushed for the government to take some of the billions of dollars in profits being captured by the five biggest U.S. oil companies. But the move was blocked by Republicans, who also thwarted a Democratic proposal to give the government greater power to address oil market speculation that some argue has amplified the surge in crude prices.
The CFTC, which regulates U.S. futures markets, began a wide-ranging investigation in December of U.S. oil markets, with a focus on possible price manipulation. The agency is investigating potential abuses in the way crude-oil is purchased, shipped, stored and traded nationwide. It also recently announced several other initiatives designed to enhance the transparency of U.S. and international energy futures markets.
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From: Why-homing
Crude supplies dropped by 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million for the week ended June 6, according to the Energy Department Wednesday. They've fallen a total of almost 24 million in four weeks.
well **** we keep usin more and more and more so at this rate the price will never drop
well **** we keep usin more and more and more so at this rate the price will never drop
Diesel Bomber
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,015
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From: Nanaimo, BC Canada,
Regular unleaded in most parts of the country (Canada) is now at $1.45/L ($5.488/G)The highest is back east at $1.513/L ($5.727/G) in Montreal.
Diesel and all derivatives are either there or higher.
This is assuming that we can treat the CND and USA dollars as equal because they are hovering around par for the last few months.
Diesel and all derivatives are either there or higher.
This is assuming that we can treat the CND and USA dollars as equal because they are hovering around par for the last few months.
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From: Why-homing
$250 oil? Don't bet on it
The CEO of Russian oil firm Gazprom, the world's largest energy company, is predicting a huge jump in the price of oil. Could he possibly be right?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you think $135 oil is bad, you ain't seen nothing yet. That, at least, is the take from the head of the world's largest energy firm.
Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russian oil company Gazprom (OGZPY), told reporters at an event in France yesterday that he expects the price to rise to...wait for it...$250 a barrel by 2009.
Talkback: What do you think will happen to the price of oil?
This is a stunning prediction considering that many of Miller's U.S. and European counterparts have been busy trying to argue that oil prices will go down - they, of course, are trying to ward off criticism about their companies' record profits.
Now Miller has more than a vested interest in seeing oil prices rise higher. So his expectations of crude nearly doubling after already rising nearly 45% this year has to be taken with several billion grains of salt.
Still, could oil head higher from here? It's possible. A stronger dollar would limit the upside, but as I've discussed in recent columns, the Federal Reserve's tough talk about the dollar is just that...talk.
Even if the Fed keeps rates steady, as expected, for the next few months, we could see a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices since the European Central Bank has hinted that it may raise rates at its next meeting.
What's more, because of supply and demand issues, Morgan Stanley oil analyst Ole Shorer predicted last week that crude could hit $150 a barrel by July 4.
But $250 just seems crazy - even with strong demand from India and China and tight supplies.
Many economists, oil analysts, market strategists and fund managers I've spoken to in the past few months agree that speculation is a big factor behind oil's surge. The price of oil may be artificially inflated by as much as $20 to $30 a barrel because of hedge funds and other traders making bullish bets on crude and bearish bets on the dollar.
In other words, oil should be trading closer to $100 to $110 if supply and demand were the only issues in play. Others say the "fundamental" level is even lower.
"Like everyone else, I've been taken aback by the run in oil we've seen in the past few weeks," said Stephen Thornber, portfolio manager for the Threadneedle Global Equity fund and head of the global energy team for Threadneedle in London. "This has got the feel, very short-term, of a bubble. If the price were to drift back $15 to $20, I wouldn't be surprised. Oil has run too far too fast," he said.
What's more, we could see some relief on the demand front soon.
American consumers have already started changing their behavior. They're cutting back on driving and have also been buying more fuel efficient cars, to the consternation of GM (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500).
And as I've pointed out in another recent column, if the ECB does raise rates this year, the eventual outcome might be a European economic slowdown akin to what's currently going on here. That, in turn, would also lead to lower demand for oil and a lower price for oil.
Deutsche Bank chief energy economist Adam Sieminski said during testimony at a House hearing on the future of oil this morning that oil prices should average around $105 a barrel over the next year because "demand is showing signs of slowing."
Nonetheless, it's difficult, if not impossible, to really gauge with any accuracy where oil will be months from now.
Sieminski pointed out in his testimony that since 1999, analysts have "consistently under-estimated" crude oil prices by an average of about 31%.
And Thornber said that a variety of factors, including more tensions with Iran or a bad hurricane season in the United States, could lead to oil soaring past $150 and on towards $200 in short order.
So who knows? Gazprom's Miller may have the last laugh after all.
The CEO of Russian oil firm Gazprom, the world's largest energy company, is predicting a huge jump in the price of oil. Could he possibly be right?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you think $135 oil is bad, you ain't seen nothing yet. That, at least, is the take from the head of the world's largest energy firm.
Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russian oil company Gazprom (OGZPY), told reporters at an event in France yesterday that he expects the price to rise to...wait for it...$250 a barrel by 2009.
Talkback: What do you think will happen to the price of oil?
This is a stunning prediction considering that many of Miller's U.S. and European counterparts have been busy trying to argue that oil prices will go down - they, of course, are trying to ward off criticism about their companies' record profits.
Now Miller has more than a vested interest in seeing oil prices rise higher. So his expectations of crude nearly doubling after already rising nearly 45% this year has to be taken with several billion grains of salt.
Still, could oil head higher from here? It's possible. A stronger dollar would limit the upside, but as I've discussed in recent columns, the Federal Reserve's tough talk about the dollar is just that...talk.
Even if the Fed keeps rates steady, as expected, for the next few months, we could see a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices since the European Central Bank has hinted that it may raise rates at its next meeting.
What's more, because of supply and demand issues, Morgan Stanley oil analyst Ole Shorer predicted last week that crude could hit $150 a barrel by July 4.
But $250 just seems crazy - even with strong demand from India and China and tight supplies.
Many economists, oil analysts, market strategists and fund managers I've spoken to in the past few months agree that speculation is a big factor behind oil's surge. The price of oil may be artificially inflated by as much as $20 to $30 a barrel because of hedge funds and other traders making bullish bets on crude and bearish bets on the dollar.
In other words, oil should be trading closer to $100 to $110 if supply and demand were the only issues in play. Others say the "fundamental" level is even lower.
"Like everyone else, I've been taken aback by the run in oil we've seen in the past few weeks," said Stephen Thornber, portfolio manager for the Threadneedle Global Equity fund and head of the global energy team for Threadneedle in London. "This has got the feel, very short-term, of a bubble. If the price were to drift back $15 to $20, I wouldn't be surprised. Oil has run too far too fast," he said.
What's more, we could see some relief on the demand front soon.
American consumers have already started changing their behavior. They're cutting back on driving and have also been buying more fuel efficient cars, to the consternation of GM (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford (F, Fortune 500).
And as I've pointed out in another recent column, if the ECB does raise rates this year, the eventual outcome might be a European economic slowdown akin to what's currently going on here. That, in turn, would also lead to lower demand for oil and a lower price for oil.
Deutsche Bank chief energy economist Adam Sieminski said during testimony at a House hearing on the future of oil this morning that oil prices should average around $105 a barrel over the next year because "demand is showing signs of slowing."
Nonetheless, it's difficult, if not impossible, to really gauge with any accuracy where oil will be months from now.
Sieminski pointed out in his testimony that since 1999, analysts have "consistently under-estimated" crude oil prices by an average of about 31%.
And Thornber said that a variety of factors, including more tensions with Iran or a bad hurricane season in the United States, could lead to oil soaring past $150 and on towards $200 in short order.
So who knows? Gazprom's Miller may have the last laugh after all.
Diesel Bomber
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 102
From: Nanaimo, BC Canada,
The price appears now from this information based more on speculation. The approach is doing nothing for the average person except making us pay more at the pumps.
If it does burst and the bubble settles back $20 or so per barrel that is still way too high to make a go of it without working, real life, real dollar rate increases.
When it hits $1.50 a litre here I can't afford to drive any longer - $200 a fill is just nuts considering only a few years ago (2003) it cost me $80. This is a 250% percent increase in 5 years. I wish I was getting a 20% a year increase!
If it does burst and the bubble settles back $20 or so per barrel that is still way too high to make a go of it without working, real life, real dollar rate increases.
When it hits $1.50 a litre here I can't afford to drive any longer - $200 a fill is just nuts considering only a few years ago (2003) it cost me $80. This is a 250% percent increase in 5 years. I wish I was getting a 20% a year increase!
